AMAC MAGAZINE: Volume 17, Issue 1 - JAN/FEB 2023

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article represent those of the individual author. Stephen Fauer, CFA Stephen Fauer is Chief Investment Officer of Pinnacle Capital Management, LLC in E. Syra- cuse, NY. He has served in that capacity since the firm's founding in 2006. He oversees all separately managed accounts and serves as portfolio manager to the firm's NYSAFE L.P. fund. He is a 1980 graduate from Michigan State University and earned his MBA in Finance from New York University in 1984. be difficult to achieve positive invest- ment returns. But they are certainly possible. Best success and health to all our readers in the new year!

nately, add new upward pressure on commodity prices. In America, consumers generally have healthy finances while the job market remains strong. Therefore, I believe those forecasting an immi- nent recession may be wrong. While good for the economy, strong final demand will help keep the pressure on prices elevated. Economic growth in 2023 will likely result in further interest rate increases. I am concerned that the Fed may overplay its hand, going to extremes. Meanwhile, the govern- ment’s excessive debt must be serviced to cover all spending “emer- gencies.” Federal interest payments

are ballooning. A risk is that large tax increases may become a necessity in politicians’ minds. Stock and bond market returns were abysmal in 2022. At least for stocks, 2023 returns should be better. I think the exception will be those large-cap growth companies that drove posi- tive returns prior to 2022. Their valu- ations have been excessive, and they may continue to fall. Interest rates are likely to continue to rise, hurting bonds. However, locking in at least some of the higher rates might be prudent. Please consult your finan- cial advisors. While the economy will likely defy negative expectations in 2023, it will

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Volume 17 Issue 1 • 39

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