EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED Surprises Are Inevitable in November
E very two years, pollsters and pundits swarm over a few obviously competitive US House, Senate, and gubernato- rial races while generally ignoring many other contests collectively deemed “safe.” But history reveals that, even in so-called “wave” elec- tions, some “safe” seats become not only competitive but often result in unanticipated upsets. A particularly ironic example occurred in 1972 as Republican President Rich- ard Nixon won the presidential elec- tion in a landslide over Democrat George McGovern. Few observers were paying attention that cycle to the US Senate race in tiny Delaware, where three-term incumbent GOP Senator Caleb Boggs was running for an expected easy re-election. But, when the votes were counted, a 29-year-old unknown Democrat
had won a stunning upset. His name? Joe Biden. Fifty years later, that Joe Biden is an unpopular first-term US president, potentially leading his party into a major midterm defeat. There are numerous other examples of shocking election upsets going back into the previous century and before — although 19 th and early 20 th century upsets, especially in US Senate races, had different elec- toral conditions than those that exist today. Until 1914, for example, popu- lar votes for US Senators were cast, but the actual election was made by state legislatures. (Perhaps the most notable was the 1858 US Senate race in Illinois where Republican Abraham Lincoln got more votes than Demo- crat Stephen Douglas, but the Illinois legislature gave the election to Doug- las.) Before 1920, additionally, women
did not have the right to vote. And, until the 1970s, there was not truly universal suffrage. Reviewing only some recent exam- ples when wave elections occurred, we can see that even icons of the US House and Senate who had easily won many prior elections were, with little or no forewarning, swept out of office by voters. The 1972 example of Joe Biden was a rare instance of a contrarian upset, a winner from the party otherwise losing the election. The more typi- cal surprise occurs when a member of Congress, senator, or governor thought to be unbeatable is washed out by the wave. In 1980, for instance, Ronald Reagan ousted Jimmy Carter in a landslide, denying him a second term. But four powerful, iconic Democratic sena-
0î • AMAC Magazine
v16i5-expect-the-unexpected.indd 2
9/19/2022 4:33:47 PM
Powered by FlippingBook