If Republicans indeed win sizable majorities in both chambers of Congress, it will likely also mean success for Republicans in other statewide races—namely certain key gubernatorial contests.
a degree by the fact that Republicans did not coalesce around a nominee until after Labor Day. Republican victories in two or more of these races would be a strong indica- tor that the GOP will take control of the Senate.
Jennifer Wexton. How many of these three seats Republicans win will likely provide a good indication of the GOP’s chances at a large majority. Another critical House race to watch is in the Indiana First Congressional District, where first-time candidate Jennifer Ruth-Green, a black woman and retired Air Force veteran, is running to unseat Democrat Frank Mrvan. The district, which has been represented by a Democrat since 1931, is ground zero for the demographic shift taking place in the country at large and is viewed by many election experts as a microcosm of the shift- ing national political landscape. A few other House races that look to be bellwethers for party control of Congress include New Hamp- shire-01, Maine-02, Michigan-07, New Jersey-07, Ohio-01, Texas-28, and New Mexico-02.
key gubernatorial contests. In New York, Lee Zeldin, who has performed well in polling, has the opportunity to become the first Republican gover- nor of the Empire State since George Pataki in 2007. Following the tumultu- ous exit of former Governor Andrew Cuomo and the far-left governance of incumbent Kathy Hochul — a paral- lel to Democrats’ left-wing gover- nance at the federal level — even a close loss by Zeldin bodes well for Republicans elsewhere. Another key gubernatorial race to watch is in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro has held a steady lead over unashamedly pro-Trump Republican Doug Mastri- ano. Should Mastriano perform well on election night, it would be a clear indicator of former President Trump’s sway with voters — another posi- tive sign for Republicans elsewhere in the country. Key Questions that Will Decide Control of Congress Will the trend of Hispanic re-align- ment with the GOP continue? Mayra Flores seemingly answered this question with a resounding “yes”
Bellwether House Races
With Democrats holding just a four- seat margin in the House, Repub- licans are favored to take control of the chamber in November. But how large a majority the GOP has to work with will be of vital impor- tance; a slim majority could put Republicans in a similar quandary as Democrats have faced this Congress, with rogue factions threatening to derail legislation. Virginia features a trio of criti- cal matchups for Republicans, all against incumbent Democrats. In the Virginia 2nd, State Senator Jen Kiggans is vying to unseat Democrat Elaine Luria. In the Virginia 7th, law enforcement veteran Yesli Vega is hoping to oust Abigail Spanberger in a top race for both parties. In the Virginia 10th, retired Navy Captain Hung Cao is challenging Democrat
Top Gubernatorial Races to Watch
If Republicans indeed win sizable majorities in both chambers of Congress, it will likely also mean success for Republicans in other statewide races — namely certain
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