In 2008, Barack Obama was elected president, and three Republicans initially thought safe lost — North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole to Democrat Kay Hagen, Oregon Senator Gordon Smith to Democrat Jeff Markley, and New Hampshire Senator John Sununu to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen. In 2010, another GOP wave, this time reflecting voter backlash over Obamacare, occurred in the first mid-term of President Obama. Republicans picked up 63 House and 6 Senate seats. Again, certain big Democratic names who were thought to be sure winners lost. In one of the biggest upsets in recent memory, Republican Scott Brown defeated Democrat Martha Coakley, who was running to fill Ted Kennedy’s vacant US Senate seat in Massachusetts. In Wisconsin, iconic Senator Russ Fein- gold lost to GOP businessman Ron Johnson. And, in Florida, incumbent Governor Charlie Crist, running as an independent, lost to Republican Marco Rubio, the former Republi- can Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives. The 2014 GOP wave saw the party pick up 13 House and 9 Senate seats. North Carolina Democratic Senator Kay Hagan, who had upset Elizabeth Dole six years earlier, was beaten by Republican Thom Tillis. Kansan third- party nominee Greg Orman, who was favored in the polls, lost to Republi- can Pat Roberts. In Illinois, the incum- bent Democratic governor was upset by his GOP opponent.
Donald Trump was the biggest surprise winner of the 2016 presiden- tial election, but there were also other surprises. Former Democratic Sena- tor Feingold of Wisconsin, who polls said would regain his seat, was again defeated by Republican Ron John- son. Polls also said Democrat Katie McGinty would win the vacant senate seat in Pennsylvania, but she lost to GOP nominee Pat Toomey, and, in Indiana, Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, who was running to reclaim a Senate seat he had retired from after having not lost an election for 30 years, was defeated by Republican Todd Young. Although 2021 was an off-year elec- tion, two states held races for gover- nor, and both were thought to be safe for Democrats. As it turned out, Republican Glenn Youngkin shocked political observers by upsetting former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe in Virginia. In New Jersey, incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy barely defeated Repub- lican nominee Jack Ciattarelli, in spite of holding a double-digit lead in the polls just before Election Day. These are just some of the more notable upsets that have occurred in recent biennial national elec- tions. They were surprises primarily because the losers were figures who had won numerous previous elec- tions, were from states which favored their party, or they were ahead in pre-election polls. The latter factor has become a frequent reason why those who make election predic-
tions have been getting it wrong. For several cycles, many mainstream pollsters have been under-measur- ing Republican voters through the “weighting” of their raw data with assumptions about who would vote. Two polls Rasmussen and Trafalgar, however, have employed unorth- odox alternative methods in their polls and have been very successful in predicting outcomes. With only a few weeks to go, the polling for the 2022 elections is beginning to show that a number of Senate races in particular that were once thought safe could now be in play, including those in Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Vermont. Polling by party for congressional races in 2022 reflects the national popular vote, which, because of large Democratic major- ities in California, New York, and Illi- nois, does not clearly indicate how individual House and Senate seats will turn out. If accurate generic polls have Republicans between one and five points ahead just before Election Day, that likely signals a red wave. Democrats would probably need to be ahead in the generic polling by more than four points to expect to retain their majorities when the votes are counted. Barry Casselman Barry Casselman is a long-time national correspondent who has covered and commented on presidential and mid-term elections since 1972.
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